Articles | Volume 12, issue 1
Solid Earth, 12, 187–217, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/se-12-187-2021
Solid Earth, 12, 187–217, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/se-12-187-2021
Research article
27 Jan 2021
Research article | 27 Jan 2021

A systems-based approach to parameterise seismic hazard in regions with little historical or instrumental seismicity: active fault and seismogenic source databases for southern Malawi

Jack N. Williams et al.

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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-306,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-306, 2021
Preprint under review for NHESS
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Cited articles

Accardo, N. J., Shillington, D. J., Gaherty, J. B., Scholz, C. A., Nyblade, A. A., Chindandali, P. R. N., Kamihanda, G., McCartney, T., Wood, D., and Wambura Ferdinand, R.: Constraints on Rift Basin Structure and Border Fault Growth in the Northern Malawi Rift From 3-D Seismic Refraction Imaging, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 123, 10003–10025, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JB016504, 2018. 
Agostini, A., Bonini, M., Corti, G., Sani, F., and Manetti, P.: Distribution of Quaternary deformation in the central Main Ethiopian Rift, East Africa, Tectonics, 30, TC4010, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010TC002833, 2011a. 
Agostini, A., Bonini, M., Corti, G., Sani, F., and Mazzarini, F.: Fault architecture in the Main Ethiopian Rift and comparison with experimental models: Implications for rift evolution and Nubia-Somalia kinematics, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 301, 479–492, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2010.11.024, 2011b. 
Ayele, A.: Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Ethiopia and the neighboring region, J. African Earth Sci., 134, 257–264, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jafrearsci.2017.06.016, 2017. 
Basili, R., Valensise, G., Vannoli, P., Burrato, P., Fracassi, U., Mariano, S., Tiberti, M. M., and Boschi, E.: The Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS), version 3: Summarizing 20 years of research on Italy's earthquake geology, Tectonophysics, 453, 20–43, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2007.04.014, 2008. 
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Short summary
Earthquake hazard is often specified using instrumental records. However, this record may not accurately forecast the location and magnitude of future earthquakes as it is short (100s of years) relative to their frequency along geologic faults (1000s of years). Here, we describe an approach to assess this hazard using fault maps and GPS data. By applying this to southern Malawi, we find that its faults may host rare (1 in 10 000 years)  M 7 earthquakes that pose a risk to its growing population.