Articles | Volume 10, issue 5
Solid Earth, 10, 1663–1684, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1663-2019

Special issue: Understanding the unknowns: the impact of uncertainty in the...

Solid Earth, 10, 1663–1684, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1663-2019

Method article 10 Oct 2019

Method article | 10 Oct 2019

Topological analysis in Monte Carlo simulation for uncertainty propagation

Evren Pakyuz-Charrier et al.

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Short summary
This paper improves the Monte Carlo simulation for uncertainty propagation (MCUP) method for 3-D geological modeling. Topological heterogeneity is observed in the model suite. The study demonstrates that such heterogeneity arises from piecewise nonlinearity inherent to 3-D geological models and contraindicates use of global uncertainty estimation methods. Topological-clustering-driven uncertainty estimation is proposed as a demonstrated alternative to address plausible model heterogeneity.