Topological analysis in Monte Carlo simulation for uncertainty propagation

Pakyuz-Charrier, Evren; Jessell, Mark; Giraud, Jérémie; Lindsay, Mark; Ogarko, Vitaliy

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1663-2019

Articles | Volume 10, issue 5

https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1663-2019

© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue:

Understanding the unknowns: the impact of uncertainty in the...

https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1663-2019

© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 10, issue 5

Method article

|

10 Oct 2019

Method article |

| 10 Oct 2019

Topological analysis in Monte Carlo simulation for uncertainty propagation

Evren Pakyuz-Charrier, Mark Jessell, Jérémie Giraud, Mark Lindsay, and Vitaliy Ogarko

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Final revised paper (published on 10 Oct 2019)
Preprint (discussion started on 10 May 2019)

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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- Supplement

RC1: 'A very interesting paper - some suggestions for improvements', Guillaume Caumon, 11 Jun 2019
- AC1: 'Authors response to G. Caumon comments', Evren Pakyuz-Charrier, 13 Aug 2019
- AC3: 'Manuscript markup', Evren Pakyuz-Charrier, 13 Aug 2019
RC2: 'Review of "Topological Analysis in Monte Carlo Simulation for Uncertainty Estimation"', Gautier Laurent, 09 Jul 2019
- AC2: 'Authors response to Gautier comments', Evren Pakyuz-Charrier, 13 Aug 2019
- AC4: 'Manuscript markup', Evren Pakyuz-Charrier, 13 Aug 2019

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

AR by Evren Pakyuz-Charrier on behalf of the Authors (13 Aug 2019) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Publish as is (20 Aug 2019) by Nick Roberts

ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (20 Aug 2019) by Susanne Buiter (Executive editor)

AR by Evren Pakyuz-Charrier on behalf of the Authors (24 Aug 2019) Manuscript

Short summary

This paper improves the Monte Carlo simulation for uncertainty propagation (MCUP) method for 3-D geological modeling. Topological heterogeneity is observed in the model suite. The study demonstrates that such heterogeneity arises from piecewise nonlinearity inherent to 3-D geological models and contraindicates use of global uncertainty estimation methods. Topological-clustering-driven uncertainty estimation is proposed as a demonstrated alternative to address plausible model heterogeneity.