Articles | Volume 15, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/se-15-459-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/se-15-459-2024
Research article
 | 
03 Apr 2024
Research article |  | 03 Apr 2024

Lahar events in the last 2000 years from Vesuvius eruptions – Part 3: Hazard assessment over the Campanian Plain

Laura Sandri, Mattia de' Michieli Vitturi, Antonio Costa, Mauro Antonio Di Vito, Ilaria Rucco, Domenico Maria Doronzo, Marina Bisson, Roberto Gianardi, Sandro de Vita, and Roberto Sulpizio

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Latest update: 22 May 2024
Short summary
We study the lahar hazard due to the remobilization of tephra deposits from reference eruptions at Somma–Vesuvius. To this end, we rely on the results of two companion papers dealing with field data and model calibration and run hundreds of simulations from the catchments around the target area to capture the uncertainty in the initial parameters. We process the simulations to draw maps of the probability of overcoming thresholds in lahar flow thickness and dynamic pressure relevant for risk.