Articles | Volume 15, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/se-15-459-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/se-15-459-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
03 Apr 2024
Research article |
| 03 Apr 2024
| 03 Apr 2024
Lahar events in the last 2000 years from Vesuvius eruptions – Part 3: Hazard assessment over the Campanian Plain
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Mattia de' Michieli Vitturi
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, Pisa, Italy
Antonio Costa
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Mauro Antonio Di Vito
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio Vesuviano, Naples, Italy
Ilaria Rucco
School of Engineering and Physical Sciences, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, UK
Domenico Maria Doronzo
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio Vesuviano, Naples, Italy
Marina Bisson
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, Pisa, Italy
Roberto Gianardi
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, Pisa, Italy
Sandro de Vita
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio Vesuviano, Naples, Italy
Roberto Sulpizio
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e Geoambientali, University of Bari, Bari, Italy
IGAG CNR, via Mario Bianco 9, Milan, Italy
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Laura Sandri, Alexander Garcia, Simona Scollo, Luigi Mereu, and Michele Prestifilippo
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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
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We model how eruptive events occur in time at Mt Etna. We distinguish between eruptions from flank fissures and paroxysmal eruptions from the summit craters. Our model allows to compute the expected annual frequency of flank events and the expected number of summit paroxysms in a future period of time, with uncertainty estimates. We show how this model can improve the assessment of probabilistic hazard from these eruptions.
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Mauro Antonio Di Vito, Ilaria Rucco, Sandro de Vita, Domenico Maria Doronzo, Marina Bisson, Mattia de' Michieli Vitturi, Mauro Rosi, Laura Sandri, Giovanni Zanchetta, Elena Zanella, and Antonio Costa
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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
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We model how eruptive events occur in time at Mt Etna. We distinguish between eruptions from flank fissures and paroxysmal eruptions from the summit craters. Our model allows to compute the expected annual frequency of flank events and the expected number of summit paroxysms in a future period of time, with uncertainty estimates. We show how this model can improve the assessment of probabilistic hazard from these eruptions.
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Leonardo Mingari, Arnau Folch, Andrew T. Prata, Federica Pardini, Giovanni Macedonio, and Antonio Costa
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Manuel Titos, Beatriz Martínez Montesinos, Sara Barsotti, Laura Sandri, Arnau Folch, Leonardo Mingari, Giovanni Macedonio, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 139–163, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022, 2022
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This work addresses a quantitative hazard assessment on the possible impact on air traffic of a future ash-forming eruption on the island of Jan Mayen. Through high-performance computing resources, we numerically simulate the transport of ash clouds and ash concentration at different flight levels over an area covering Iceland and the UK using the FALL3D model. This approach allows us to derive a set of probability maps explaining the extent and persisting concentration conditions of ash clouds.
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Here, we present PLUME-MoM-TSM, a volcanic plume model that allows us to quantify the formation of aggregates during the rise of the plume, model the phase change of water, and include the possibility to simulate the initial spreading of the tephra umbrella cloud intruding from the volcanic column into the atmosphere. The model is first applied to the 2015 Calbuco eruption (Chile) and provides an analytical relationship between the upwind spreading and some characteristic of the volcanic column.
Andrew T. Prata, Leonardo Mingari, Arnau Folch, Giovanni Macedonio, and Antonio Costa
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 409–436, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-409-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-409-2021, 2021
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This paper presents FALL3D-8.0, the latest version release of an open-source code with a track record of 15+ years and a growing number of users in the volcanological and atmospheric communities. The code, originally conceived for atmospheric dispersal and deposition of tephra particles, has been extended to model other types of particles, aerosols and radionuclides. This paper details new model applications and validation of FALL3D-8.0 using satellite, ground-deposit load and radionuclide data.
Alessandro Tadini, Andrea Bevilacqua, Augusto Neri, Raffaello Cioni, Giovanni Biagioli, Mattia de'Michieli Vitturi, and Tomaso Esposti Ongaro
Solid Earth, 12, 119–139, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-12-119-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-12-119-2021, 2021
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In this paper we test a simplified numerical model for pyroclastic density currents or PDCs (mixtures of hot gas, lapilli and ash moving across the landscape under the effect of gravity). The aim is quantifying the differences between real and modelled deposits of some PDCs of the 79 CE eruption of Vesuvius, Italy. This step is important because in the paper it is demonstrated that this simplified model is useful for constraining input parameters for more computationally expensive models.
Silvia Massaro, Roberto Sulpizio, Gianluca Norini, Gianluca Groppelli, Antonio Costa, Lucia Capra, Giacomo Lo Zupone, Michele Porfido, and Andrea Gabrieli
Solid Earth, 11, 2515–2533, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-2515-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-2515-2020, 2020
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In this work we provide a 2D finite-element modelling of the stress field conditions around the Fuego de Colima volcano (Mexico) in order to test the response of the commercial Linear Static Analysis software to increasingly different geological constraints. Results suggest that an appropriate set of geological and geophysical data improves the mesh generation procedures and the degree of accuracy of numerical outputs, aimed at more reliable physics-based representations of the natural system.
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Short summary
We study the lahar hazard due to the remobilization of tephra deposits from reference eruptions at Somma–Vesuvius. To this end, we rely on the results of two companion papers dealing with field data and model calibration and run hundreds of simulations from the catchments around the target area to capture the uncertainty in the initial parameters. We process the simulations to draw maps of the probability of overcoming thresholds in lahar flow thickness and dynamic pressure relevant for risk.
We study the lahar hazard due to the remobilization of tephra deposits from reference eruptions...
