Articles | Volume 15, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/se-15-459-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/se-15-459-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
03 Apr 2024
Research article |
| 03 Apr 2024
| 03 Apr 2024
Lahar events in the last 2000 years from Vesuvius eruptions – Part 3: Hazard assessment over the Campanian Plain
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Mattia de' Michieli Vitturi
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, Pisa, Italy
Antonio Costa
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Mauro Antonio Di Vito
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio Vesuviano, Naples, Italy
Ilaria Rucco
School of Engineering and Physical Sciences, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, UK
Domenico Maria Doronzo
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio Vesuviano, Naples, Italy
Marina Bisson
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, Pisa, Italy
Roberto Gianardi
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, Pisa, Italy
Sandro de Vita
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio Vesuviano, Naples, Italy
Roberto Sulpizio
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e Geoambientali, University of Bari, Bari, Italy
IGAG CNR, via Mario Bianco 9, Milan, Italy
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In this paper we propose a probability map that shows where most likely future flank eruptions will occur at Etna volcano (in Sicily, Italy). The map updates previous studies since it is based on a much longer record of past flank eruption fissures that opened in the last 4000 years on Etna. We also propose sensitivity tests to evaluate how much the assumptions made change the final probability evaluation.
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Andrew T. Prata, Leonardo Mingari, Arnau Folch, Giovanni Macedonio, and Antonio Costa
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Alessandro Tadini, Andrea Bevilacqua, Augusto Neri, Raffaello Cioni, Giovanni Biagioli, Mattia de'Michieli Vitturi, and Tomaso Esposti Ongaro
Solid Earth, 12, 119–139, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-12-119-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-12-119-2021, 2021
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In this paper we test a simplified numerical model for pyroclastic density currents or PDCs (mixtures of hot gas, lapilli and ash moving across the landscape under the effect of gravity). The aim is quantifying the differences between real and modelled deposits of some PDCs of the 79 CE eruption of Vesuvius, Italy. This step is important because in the paper it is demonstrated that this simplified model is useful for constraining input parameters for more computationally expensive models.
Silvia Massaro, Roberto Sulpizio, Gianluca Norini, Gianluca Groppelli, Antonio Costa, Lucia Capra, Giacomo Lo Zupone, Michele Porfido, and Andrea Gabrieli
Solid Earth, 11, 2515–2533, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-2515-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-2515-2020, 2020
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In this work we provide a 2D finite-element modelling of the stress field conditions around the Fuego de Colima volcano (Mexico) in order to test the response of the commercial Linear Static Analysis software to increasingly different geological constraints. Results suggest that an appropriate set of geological and geophysical data improves the mesh generation procedures and the degree of accuracy of numerical outputs, aimed at more reliable physics-based representations of the natural system.
Lucia Nardone, Roberta Esposito, Danilo Galluzzo, Simona Petrosino, Paola Cusano, Mario La Rocca, Mauro Antonio Di Vito, and Francesca Bianco
Adv. Geosci., 52, 75–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-52-75-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-52-75-2020, 2020
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We studied the subsoil structure of the Campi Flegrei area using both spectral ratios and array techniques (f-k and MSPAC) applied to seismic noise recorded by three different array. By means of joint inversion of dispersion curve and spectral ratio we obtained a Vs model, that is in a good agreement with the stratigraphic information available in the area. In areas such as Campi Flegrei the definition of the velocity model is a crucial issue to characterize the physical parameters of the medium
Sara Lenzi, Matteo Cerminara, Mattia de' Michieli Vitturi, Tomaso Esposti Ongaro, and Antonello Provenzale
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-28, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-28, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
Arnau Folch, Leonardo Mingari, Natalia Gutierrez, Mauricio Hanzich, Giovanni Macedonio, and Antonio Costa
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1431–1458, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1431-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1431-2020, 2020
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Silvia Massaro, Antonio Costa, Roberto Sulpizio, Diego Coppola, and Lucia Capra
Solid Earth, 10, 1429–1450, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1429-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1429-2019, 2019
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The Fuego de Colima volcano (Mexico) shows a complex eruptive history, with periods of rapid and slow lava dome growth punctuated by explosive activity. Here we reconstructed the 1998–2018 average discharge rate by means of satellite thermal data and the literature. Using spectral and wavelet analysis, we found a multi-term cyclic behavior that is in good agreement with numerical modeling, accounting for a variable magmatic feeding system composed of a single or double magma chamber system.
Mattia de' Michieli Vitturi, Tomaso Esposti Ongaro, Giacomo Lari, and Alvaro Aravena
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 581–595, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-581-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-581-2019, 2019
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Pyroclastic avalanches are a type of granular flow generated at active volcanoes by different mechanisms, including the collapse of steep pyroclastic deposits (e.g., scoria and ash cones) and fountaining during moderately explosive eruptions. We present IMEX_SfloW2D, a depth-averaged flow model describing the granular mixture as a single-phase granular fluid. Benchmark cases and preliminary application to the simulation of the 11 February pyroclastic avalanche at Mt. Etna (Italy) are shown.
Matthieu Poret, Stefano Corradini, Luca Merucci, Antonio Costa, Daniele Andronico, Mario Montopoli, Gianfranco Vulpiani, and Valentin Freret-Lorgeril
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 4695–4714, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4695-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4695-2018, 2018
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This study aims at proposing a method to better assess the initial magma fragmentation produced during explosive volcanic eruptions. We worked on merging field, radar, and satellite data to estimate the total grain-size distribution, which is used within simulations to reconstruct the tephra loading and far-travelling airborne ash dispersal. This approach is applied to 23 November 2013, giving the very fine ash fraction related to volcanic hazards (e.g. air traffic safety).
Arnau Folch, Jordi Barcons, Tomofumi Kozono, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 861–879, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-861-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-861-2017, 2017
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Atmospheric dispersal of a gas denser than air can threat the environment and surrounding communities. In complex terrains, microscale winds and local orographic features can have a strong influence on the gas cloud behavior, potentially leading to inaccurate model results if not captured by coarser-scale simulations. We introduce a methodology for microscale wind field characterization and validate it using, as a test case, the CO2 gas dispersal from 1986 Lake Nyos eruption.
Bernd Wagner, Thomas Wilke, Alexander Francke, Christian Albrecht, Henrike Baumgarten, Adele Bertini, Nathalie Combourieu-Nebout, Aleksandra Cvetkoska, Michele D'Addabbo, Timme H. Donders, Kirstin Föller, Biagio Giaccio, Andon Grazhdani, Torsten Hauffe, Jens Holtvoeth, Sebastien Joannin, Elena Jovanovska, Janna Just, Katerina Kouli, Andreas Koutsodendris, Sebastian Krastel, Jack H. Lacey, Niklas Leicher, Melanie J. Leng, Zlatko Levkov, Katja Lindhorst, Alessia Masi, Anna M. Mercuri, Sebastien Nomade, Norbert Nowaczyk, Konstantinos Panagiotopoulos, Odile Peyron, Jane M. Reed, Eleonora Regattieri, Laura Sadori, Leonardo Sagnotti, Björn Stelbrink, Roberto Sulpizio, Slavica Tofilovska, Paola Torri, Hendrik Vogel, Thomas Wagner, Friederike Wagner-Cremer, George A. Wolff, Thomas Wonik, Giovanni Zanchetta, and Xiaosen S. Zhang
Biogeosciences, 14, 2033–2054, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2033-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2033-2017, 2017
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Lake Ohrid is considered to be the oldest existing lake in Europe. Moreover, it has a very high degree of endemic biodiversity. During a drilling campaign at Lake Ohrid in 2013, a 569 m long sediment sequence was recovered from Lake Ohrid. The ongoing studies of this record provide first important information on the environmental and evolutionary history of the lake and the reasons for its high endimic biodiversity.
Giovanni Zanchetta, Eleonora Regattieri, Biagio Giaccio, Bernd Wagner, Roberto Sulpizio, Alex Francke, Hendrik Vogel, Laura Sadori, Alessia Masi, Gaia Sinopoli, Jack H. Lacey, Melanie J. Leng, and Niklas Leicher
Biogeosciences, 13, 2757–2768, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2757-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2757-2016, 2016
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Chronology is fundamental in paleoclimatology for understanding timing of events and their origin. In this paper we try to obtain a more detailed chronology for the interval comprised between ca. 140 and 70 ka for the DEEP core in Lake Ohrid using regional independently-dated archives (i.e. speleothems and/or lacustrine succession with well-dated volcanic layers). This allows to insert the DEEP chronology within a common chronological frame between different continental and marine proxy records.
Niklas Leicher, Giovanni Zanchetta, Roberto Sulpizio, Biagio Giaccio, Bernd Wagner, Sebastien Nomade, Alexander Francke, and Paola Del Carlo
Biogeosciences, 13, 2151–2178, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2151-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2151-2016, 2016
Alexander Francke, Bernd Wagner, Janna Just, Niklas Leicher, Raphael Gromig, Henrike Baumgarten, Hendrik Vogel, Jack H. Lacey, Laura Sadori, Thomas Wonik, Melanie J. Leng, Giovanni Zanchetta, Roberto Sulpizio, and Biagio Giaccio
Biogeosciences, 13, 1179–1196, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1179-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1179-2016, 2016
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Lake Ohrid (Macedonia, Albania) is thought to be more than 1.2 million years old. To recover a long paleoclimate record for the Mediterranean region, a deep drilling was carried out in 2013 within the scope of the Scientific Collaboration on Past Speciation Conditions in Lake Ohrid (SCOPSCO) project. Here, we present lithological, sedimentological, and (bio-)geochemical data from the upper 247.8 m composite depth of the overall 569 m long DEEP site record.
Elena Jovanovska, Aleksandra Cvetkoska, Torsten Hauffe, Zlatko Levkov, Bernd Wagner, Roberto Sulpizio, Alexander Francke, Christian Albrecht, and Thomas Wilke
Biogeosciences, 13, 1149–1161, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1149-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1149-2016, 2016
A. Folch, A. Costa, and G. Macedonio
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 431–450, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-431-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-431-2016, 2016
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We present FPLUME-1.0, a steady-state 1-D cross-section-averaged eruption column model based on the buoyant plume theory (BPT). The model accounts for plume bending by wind, entrainment of ambient moisture, effects of water phase changes, particle fallout and re-entrainment, a new parameterization for the air entrainment coefficients and a model for wet aggregation of ash particles in presence of liquid water or ice.
H. Baumgarten, T. Wonik, D. C. Tanner, A. Francke, B. Wagner, G. Zanchetta, R. Sulpizio, B. Giaccio, and S. Nomade
Biogeosciences, 12, 7453–7465, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-7453-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-7453-2015, 2015
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Gamma ray (GR) fluctuations and K values from downhole logging data obtained in the sediments of Lake Ohrid correlate with the global climate reference record (LR04 stack from δ18O) (Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005). GR and K values are considered a reliable proxy to depict glacial-interglacial cycles and document warm, humid and cold, drier periods. A robust age model for the downhole logging data over the past 630kyr was established and will play a crucial role for other working groups.
M. D'Addabbo, R. Sulpizio, M. Guidi, G. Capitani, P. Mantecca, and G. Zanchetta
Biogeosciences, 12, 7087–7106, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-7087-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-7087-2015, 2015
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Leaching experiments were carried out on fresh ash samples from the 2012 Popocatépetl, and 2011/12 Etna eruptions, in order to investigate the release of compounds in water. Results were discussed in the light of changing pH and release of compounds for the different leachates. They were used for toxicity experiments on living biota (Xenopus laevis). They are mildly toxic, and no significant differences exist between the toxic profiles of the two leachates.
M. de' Michieli Vitturi, A. Neri, and S. Barsotti
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2447–2463, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2447-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2447-2015, 2015
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In this paper a new mathematical model of volcanic plume, named Plume-MoM, is presented. The model is based on the method of moments and it is able to describe the continuous variability in the grain size distribution (GSD) of the pyroclastic mixture ejected at the vent, crucial to characterize the source conditions of ash dispersal models. Results show that the GSD at the top of the plume is similar to that at the base and that plume height is weakly affected by the parameters of the GSD.
R. Tonini, L. Sandri, A. Costa, and J. Selva
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 409–415, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-409-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-409-2015, 2015
B. Wagner, T. Wilke, S. Krastel, G. Zanchetta, R. Sulpizio, K. Reicherter, M. J. Leng, A. Grazhdani, S. Trajanovski, A. Francke, K. Lindhorst, Z. Levkov, A. Cvetkoska, J. M. Reed, X. Zhang, J. H. Lacey, T. Wonik, H. Baumgarten, and H. Vogel
Sci. Dril., 17, 19–29, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-17-19-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-17-19-2014, 2014
B. Wagner, A. Francke, R. Sulpizio, G. Zanchetta, K. Lindhorst, S. Krastel, H. Vogel, J. Rethemeyer, G. Daut, A. Grazhdani, B. Lushaj, and S. Trajanovski
Clim. Past, 8, 2069–2078, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-2069-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-2069-2012, 2012
Related subject area
Subject area: The evolving Earth surface | Editorial team: Geochemistry, mineralogy, petrology, and volcanology | Discipline: Volcanology
Lahar events in the last 2000 years from Vesuvius eruptions – Part 2: Formulation and validation of a computational model based on a shallow layer approach
Lahar events in the last 2000 years from Vesuvius eruptions – Part 1: Distribution and impact on densely inhabited territory estimated from field data analysis
Transient conduit permeability controlled by a shift between compactant shear and dilatant rupture at Unzen volcano (Japan)
Reproducing pyroclastic density current deposits of the 79 CE eruption of the Somma–Vesuvius volcano using the box-model approach
Mattia de' Michieli Vitturi, Antonio Costa, Mauro A. Di Vito, Laura Sandri, and Domenico M. Doronzo
Solid Earth, 15, 437–458, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-15-437-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-15-437-2024, 2024
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We present a numerical model for lahars generated by the mobilization of tephra deposits from a reference size eruption at Somma–Vesuvius. The paper presents the model (pyhsics and numerics) and a sensitivity analysis of the processes modelled, numerical schemes, and grid resolution. This work provides the basis for application to hazard quantification for lahars in the Vesuvius area. To this end, we rely on results of the two companion papers (Part 1 on field data, Part 3 on hazard maps).
Mauro Antonio Di Vito, Ilaria Rucco, Sandro de Vita, Domenico Maria Doronzo, Marina Bisson, Mattia de' Michieli Vitturi, Mauro Rosi, Laura Sandri, Giovanni Zanchetta, Elena Zanella, and Antonio Costa
Solid Earth, 15, 405–436, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-15-405-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-15-405-2024, 2024
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We study the distribution of two historical pyroclastic fall–flow and lahar deposits from the sub-Plinian Vesuvius eruptions of 472 CE Pollena and 1631. The motivation comes directly from the widely distributed impact that both the eruptions and lahar phenomena had on the Campanian territory, not only around the volcano but also down the nearby Apennine valleys. Data on about 500 stratigraphic sections and modeling allowed us to evaluate the physical and dynamical impact of these phenomena.
Yan Lavallée, Takahiro Miwa, James D. Ashworth, Paul A. Wallace, Jackie E. Kendrick, Rebecca Coats, Anthony Lamur, Adrian Hornby, Kai-Uwe Hess, Takeshi Matsushima, Setsuya Nakada, Hiroshi Shimizu, Bernhard Ruthensteiner, and Hugh Tuffen
Solid Earth, 13, 875–900, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-13-875-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-13-875-2022, 2022
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Volcanic eruptions are controlled by the presence of gas bubbles in magma, which, in excess, can cause explosions. Eruption models lack an understanding of how gas percolates in magma flowing in a conduit. Here we study gas percolation in magma associated with the 1994–1995 eruption at Mt. Unzen, Japan. The results show that the pathways for gas escape depend on the depth and ascent rate of magma. Pathways closed at depth but opened along fractures when magma ascended rapidly near the surface.
Alessandro Tadini, Andrea Bevilacqua, Augusto Neri, Raffaello Cioni, Giovanni Biagioli, Mattia de'Michieli Vitturi, and Tomaso Esposti Ongaro
Solid Earth, 12, 119–139, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-12-119-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-12-119-2021, 2021
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In this paper we test a simplified numerical model for pyroclastic density currents or PDCs (mixtures of hot gas, lapilli and ash moving across the landscape under the effect of gravity). The aim is quantifying the differences between real and modelled deposits of some PDCs of the 79 CE eruption of Vesuvius, Italy. This step is important because in the paper it is demonstrated that this simplified model is useful for constraining input parameters for more computationally expensive models.
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Short summary
We study the lahar hazard due to the remobilization of tephra deposits from reference eruptions at Somma–Vesuvius. To this end, we rely on the results of two companion papers dealing with field data and model calibration and run hundreds of simulations from the catchments around the target area to capture the uncertainty in the initial parameters. We process the simulations to draw maps of the probability of overcoming thresholds in lahar flow thickness and dynamic pressure relevant for risk.
We study the lahar hazard due to the remobilization of tephra deposits from reference eruptions...
