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SE | Articles | Volume 10, issue 1
Solid Earth, 10, 15–25, 2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Solid Earth, 10, 15–25, 2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 08 Jan 2019

Research article | 08 Jan 2019

The impact of earthquake cycle variability on neotectonic and paleoseismic slip rate estimates

Richard Styron

Related subject area

Subject area: Tectonic plate interactions, magma genesis, and lithosphere deformation at all scales | Editorial team: Structural geology and tectonics, rock physics, experimental deformation | Discipline: Tectonics
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Revised manuscript accepted for SE
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Cited articles

Benedetti, L., Manighetti, I., Gaudemer, Y., Finkel, R., Malavieille, J., Pou, K., Arnold, M., Aumaître, G., Bourlès, D., and Keddadouche, K.: Earthquake synchrony and clustering on Fucino faults (Central Italy) as revealed from in situ 36Cl exposure dating, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 118, 4948–4974,, 2013. a
Berryman, K. R., Cochran, U. A., Clark, K. J., Biasi, G. P., Langridge, R. M., and Villamor, P.: Major Earthquakes Occur Regularly on an Isolated Plate Boundary Fault, Science, 336, 1690–1693,, 2012. a, b
Biasi, G. P. and Weldon, R. J.: Estimating Surface Rupture Length and Magnitude of Paleoearthquakes from Point Measurements of Rupture Displacement, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 96, 1612–1623,, 2006. a, b
Bird, P.: Uncertainties in long-term geologic offset rates of faults: General principles illustrated with data from California and other western states, Geosphere, 3, 577–595, 2007. a
Chéry, J., Carretier, S., and Ritz, J.-F.: Postseismic stress transfer explains time clustering of large earthquakes in Mongolia, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 194, 277–286,, 2001. a
Publications Copernicus
Short summary
Successive earthquakes on a single fault are not perfectly periodic in time. There is some natural random variability. This leads to variations in estimated fault slip rates over short timescales though the longer-term mean slip rate stays constant, which may cause problems when comparing slip rates at different timescales. This paper is the first to quantify these effects, demonstrating substantial variation in slip rates over a few to tens of earthquakes, but much less at longer timescales.
Successive earthquakes on a single fault are not perfectly periodic in time. There is some...