Articles | Volume 10, issue 5
Review article
 | Highlight paper
03 Sep 2019
Review article | Highlight paper |  | 03 Sep 2019

How can geologic decision-making under uncertainty be improved?

Cristina G. Wilson, Clare E. Bond, and Thomas F. Shipley

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Scaling of natural fracture patterns at Swift anticline, NW Montana: the influence of structural position, lithology, and observation scale
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Learning outcomes, learning support, and cohort cohesion on a virtual field trip: an analysis of student and staff perceptions
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Raman spectroscopy in thrust-stacked carbonates: an investigation of spectral parameters with implications for temperature calculations in strained samples
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Constraining stochastic 3-D structural geological models with topology information using approximate Bayesian computation in GemPy 2.1
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Fracking bad language – hydraulic fracturing and earthquake risks
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Subject area: Tectonic plate interactions, magma genesis, and lithosphere deformation at all scales | Editorial team: Structural geology and tectonics, paleoseismology, rock physics, experimental deformation | Discipline: Structural geology
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Water release and homogenization by dynamic recrystallization of quartz
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Cited articles

Alcalde, J., Bond, C. E., and Randle, C. H.: Framing bias: The effect of figure presentation on seismic interpretation, Interpretation, 5, 591–605,, 2017a. a
Alcalde, J., Bond, C. E., Johnson, G., Butler, R. W. H., Cooper, M. A., and Ellis, J. F.: The importance of structural model availability on seismic interpretation, J. Struct. Geol., 97, 161–171,, 2017b. a, b, c, d
Andrews, B. J., Roberts, J. J., Shipton, Z. K., Bigi, S., Tartarello, M. C., and Johnson, G.: How do we see fractures? Quantifying subjective bias in fracture data collection, Solid Earth, 10, 487–516,, 2019. a
Araya-Polo, M., Dahlke, T., Frogner, C., Zhang, C., Poggio, T., and Hohl, D.: Automated fault detection without seismic processing, The Leading Edge, 36, 208–214,, 2017. a
Argent, R. M.: An overview of model integration for environmental applications – components, frameworks and semantics, Environ. Modell. Softw., 19, 219–234,, 2004. a, b
Short summary
In this paper, we outline the key insights from decision-making research about how, when faced with uncertainty, humans constrain decisions through the use of heuristics (rules of thumb), making them vulnerable to systematic and suboptimal decision biases. We also review existing strategies to debias decision-making that have applicability in the geosciences, giving special attention to strategies that make use of information technology and artificial intelligence.