Articles | Volume 10, issue 5
Solid Earth, 10, 1469–1488, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1469-2019

Special issue: Understanding the unknowns: the impact of uncertainty in the...

Solid Earth, 10, 1469–1488, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1469-2019

Review article 03 Sep 2019

Review article | 03 Sep 2019

How can geologic decision-making under uncertainty be improved?

Cristina G. Wilson et al.

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Alcalde, J., Bond, C. E., and Randle, C. H.: Framing bias: The effect of figure presentation on seismic interpretation, Interpretation, 5, 591–605, https://doi.org/10.1190/INT-2017-0083.1, 2017a. a
Alcalde, J., Bond, C. E., Johnson, G., Butler, R. W. H., Cooper, M. A., and Ellis, J. F.: The importance of structural model availability on seismic interpretation, J. Struct. Geol., 97, 161–171, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsg.2017.03.003, 2017b. a, b, c, d
Andrews, B. J., Roberts, J. J., Shipton, Z. K., Bigi, S., Tartarello, M. C., and Johnson, G.: How do we see fractures? Quantifying subjective bias in fracture data collection, Solid Earth, 10, 487–516, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-487-2019, 2019. a
Araya-Polo, M., Dahlke, T., Frogner, C., Zhang, C., Poggio, T., and Hohl, D.: Automated fault detection without seismic processing, The Leading Edge, 36, 208–214, https://doi.org/10.1190/tle36030208.1, 2017. a
Argent, R. M.: An overview of model integration for environmental applications – components, frameworks and semantics, Environ. Modell. Softw., 19, 219–234, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1364-8152(03)00150-6, 2004. a, b
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In this paper, we outline the key insights from decision-making research about how, when faced with uncertainty, humans constrain decisions through the use of heuristics (rules of thumb), making them vulnerable to systematic and suboptimal decision biases. We also review existing strategies to debias decision-making that have applicability in the geosciences, giving special attention to strategies that make use of information technology and artificial intelligence.