Articles | Volume 13, issue 1
Research article
10 Jan 2022
Research article |  | 10 Jan 2022

De-risking the energy transition by quantifying the uncertainties in fault stability

David Healy and Stephen Paul Hicks

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Cited articles

Alcalde, J., Bond, C. E., Johnson, G., Ellis, J. F., and Butler, R. W.: Impact of seismic image quality on fault interpretation uncertainty, GSA Today,, 2017. 
Allmendinger, R. W., Cardozo, N., and Fisher, D. M.: Structural geology algorithms: Vectors and tensorsm Cambridge University Press, ISBN  978-1-10-740138-9, 2011. 
Anthony, R. E., Ringler, A. T., Wilson, D. C., and Wolin, E.: Do low-cost seismographs perform well enough for your network? An overview of laboratory tests and field observations of the OSOP Raspberry Shake 4D, Seismol. Res. Lett., 90, 219–228, 2019. 
Ayash, S. C., Dobroskok, A. A., Sorensen, J. A., Wolfe, S. L., Steadman, E. N., and Harju, J. A.: Probabilistic approach to evaluating seismicity in CO2 storage risk assessment, Enrgy. Proced., 1, 2487–2494, 2009. 
Baptie, B.: Seismogenesis and state of stress in the UK, Tectonophysics, 482, 150–159, 2010. 
Short summary
The energy transition requires operations in faulted rocks. To manage the technical challenges and public concern over possible induced earthquakes, we need to quantify the risks. We calculate the probability of fault slip based on uncertain inputs, stresses, fluid pressures, and the mechanical properties of rocks in fault zones. Our examples highlight the specific gaps in our knowledge. Citizen science projects could produce useful data and include the public in the discussions about hazards.