Articles | Volume 13, issue 1
Research article
10 Jan 2022
Research article |  | 10 Jan 2022

De-risking the energy transition by quantifying the uncertainties in fault stability

David Healy and Stephen Paul Hicks

Related authors

Rapid hydration and weakening of anhydrite under stress: implications for natural hydration in the Earth's crust and mantle
Johanna Heeb, David Healy, Nicholas E. Timms, and Enrique Gomez-Rivas
Solid Earth, 14, 985–1003,,, 2023
Short summary
Evolution of fault reactivation potential in deep geothermal systems. Insights from the greater Ruhr region, Germany
Michal Kruszewski, Alessandro Verdecchia, Oliver Heidbach, Rebecca M. Harrington, and David Healy
EGUsphere,,, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
The variation and visualisation of elastic anisotropy in rock-forming minerals
David Healy, Nicholas Erik Timms, and Mark Alan Pearce
Solid Earth, 11, 259–286,,, 2020
Short summary
Bimodal or quadrimodal? Statistical tests for the shape of fault patterns
David Healy and Peter Jupp
Solid Earth, 9, 1051–1060,,, 2018
Short summary
Mechanical models to estimate the paleostress state from igneous intrusions
Tara L. Stephens, Richard J. Walker, David Healy, Alodie Bubeck, and Richard W. England
Solid Earth, 9, 847–858,,, 2018
Short summary

Related subject area

Subject area: Tectonic plate interactions, magma genesis, and lithosphere deformation at all scales | Editorial team: Structural geology and tectonics, paleoseismology, rock physics, experimental deformation | Discipline: Structural geology
Multiscalar 3D temporal structural characterisation of Smøla island, mid-Norwegian passive margin: an analogue for unravelling the tectonic history of offshore basement highs
Matthew S. Hodge, Guri Venvik, Jochen Knies, Roelant van der Lelij, Jasmin Schönenberger, Øystein Nordgulen, Marco Brönner, Aziz Nasuti, and Giulio Viola
Solid Earth, 15, 589–615,,, 2024
Short summary
Impact of faults on the remote stress state
Karsten Reiter, Oliver Heidbach, and Moritz O. Ziegler
Solid Earth, 15, 305–327,,, 2024
Short summary
Naturally fractured reservoir characterization in heterogeneous sandstones: insight for Uranium In Situ Recovery (Imouraren, Niger)
Maxime Jamet, Gregory Ballas, Roger Soliva, Olivier Gerbeaud, Thierry Lefebvre, Christine Leredde, and Didier Loggia
EGUsphere,,, 2024
Short summary
Subduction plate interface shear stress associated with rapid subduction at deep slow earthquake depths: example from the Sanbagawa belt, southwestern Japan
Yukinojo Koyama, Simon R. Wallis, and Takayoshi Nagaya
Solid Earth, 15, 143–166,,, 2024
Short summary
Multiple phase rifting and subsequent inversion in the West Netherlands Basin: implications for geothermal reservoir characterization
Annelotte Weert, Kei Ogata, Francesco Vinci, Coen Leo, Giovanni Bertotti, Jerome Amory, and Stefano Tavani
Solid Earth, 15, 121–141,,, 2024
Short summary

Cited articles

Alcalde, J., Bond, C. E., Johnson, G., Ellis, J. F., and Butler, R. W.: Impact of seismic image quality on fault interpretation uncertainty, GSA Today,, 2017. 
Allmendinger, R. W., Cardozo, N., and Fisher, D. M.: Structural geology algorithms: Vectors and tensorsm Cambridge University Press, ISBN  978-1-10-740138-9, 2011. 
Anthony, R. E., Ringler, A. T., Wilson, D. C., and Wolin, E.: Do low-cost seismographs perform well enough for your network? An overview of laboratory tests and field observations of the OSOP Raspberry Shake 4D, Seismol. Res. Lett., 90, 219–228, 2019. 
Ayash, S. C., Dobroskok, A. A., Sorensen, J. A., Wolfe, S. L., Steadman, E. N., and Harju, J. A.: Probabilistic approach to evaluating seismicity in CO2 storage risk assessment, Enrgy. Proced., 1, 2487–2494, 2009. 
Baptie, B.: Seismogenesis and state of stress in the UK, Tectonophysics, 482, 150–159, 2010. 
Short summary
The energy transition requires operations in faulted rocks. To manage the technical challenges and public concern over possible induced earthquakes, we need to quantify the risks. We calculate the probability of fault slip based on uncertain inputs, stresses, fluid pressures, and the mechanical properties of rocks in fault zones. Our examples highlight the specific gaps in our knowledge. Citizen science projects could produce useful data and include the public in the discussions about hazards.